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Stephen and Belinda and PaulCategory: Politics For a couple of weeks, I've been meaning to write about the antics of our federal political leaders. But today's bombshell announcement has rendered much of what I wanted to say obsolete. Belinda Stronach's move to the Liberals amounts to a sucker punch to Stephen Harper's gut. He must be hurting pretty bad. But you can't really feel too sorry for the guy. He really had it coming to him, with all the games he's been playing lately. Here are some random thoughts on the current situation in Ottawa: Harper has been trying to convince Canadians that the Liberals can't run government. But he has just amply demonstrated that he can't even properly manage his own party! It's now no longer a sure thing that Thursday's budget will be the start of a Spring election campaign. In retrospect, Paul Martin and the Liberals probably knew full well that they were in control, even without Belinda's support. Would Belinda have accepted a cabinet post knowing the government would fall three days later? Harper has been playing into the Liberals hand. Of all possible near-term outcomes, only one benefits the Conservatives: the Conservatives winning the next election with a majority. All other outcomes are bad news for Harper and the Conservatives. If the Liberals win on Thursday's budget vote, Harper looks like a fool, and the election is delayed to the Winter, giving the Liberals more time to shore up their support. They can tout their increased funding to education, the environment, public housing, and foreign aid, measures insisted on by the NDP, and largely popular among Canadians. They can point out that Harper tried to drag the country into an unwanted election because he didn't like these worthwhile and popular funding choices. If Harper wins the next election (Spring or Winter) with a minority, he would have to decide which other party to go begging to for support. The Liberals, of course, would tell him to get lost. Allying with the NDP would be unthinkable for both parties. And an alliance with the Bloc Québecois would be a signal to the country that the Conservatives support splitting the country apart. We'd then really see how badly Harper wants power. If the Liberals win with a minority, the election would be seen as a waste of time, and the Liberals could easily pin the blame on Harper. And if the Liberals win with a majority, the Conservative knives would be out for Harper. Hans path: /Politics | permanent link to this entry  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
