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Scarborough-Guildwood: Past ResultsCategory: Politics When trying to predict the outcome in the riding of Scarborough-Guildwood, it may be useful to look at the history of previous elections in this area. Note that while Scarborough-Guildwood is a new riding created in 2003, the natural predecessor is the riding of Scarborough-East. Redistributed results for the 2000 election show a close match, with a slight advantage for the Liberals after the redistribution. As result of the redistribution, the riding lost the more conservative polls in West Hill, but gained more liberal working class polls to the west. The following table shows the election results of Scarborough-East and Scarborough-Guildwood since 1968:
During the 1970's, the riding flip-flopped between the Liberals and the Progressive Conservatives, but during the 1980's, the riding belonged to the PC's. The rout of the Mulroney Conservatives in 1993 coincided with the introduction of the Reform Party, which came in a strong second place in this riding. But that election, and all others since, belonged to the Liberals. Since 1993, there was always talk about the split among the right-wing in Canada. But it should be noted that in Scarborough-East, a combined PC plus Reform/Alliance result would still not beat the Liberals. The combined count is interesting in that it declined steadily through-out the 1990's. The election of note is the 2004 election after the "merger" of the Alliance Party with the Progressive Conservatives. National public opinion polls in advance of the merger showed that for a majority of PC supporters, their second choice was not the Alliance party, but rather the Liberals. This is clearly reflected in the 2004 results, with the lowest conservative vote ever. Obviously, the conservative voters in this riding were of the progressive conservative variety, not sharing the more right-wing views of the Alliance party. What does this mean for the 2006 election? The Conservative Party has some momentum coming into the election. While John McKay has been busy representing the riding in Ottawa, the Conservative candidate in this riding, Pauline Browes, has been campaigning ever since the summer. Her summer campaign brochure emphasized her parliamentary experience as a cabinet minister in the short-lived Kim Campbell government. But note that she represented the riding of Scarborough-Centre, not Scarborough-East. And if anyone in this riding remembers her, they may still remember the reasons why we turfed out the PC's in 1993. (She came in 3rd place in that election.) Based on history, and John McKay's solid reputation in the riding, one would have to go out on a limb to predict anything other than another Liberal victory in this riding. But it's still early in the campaign, and most parties haven't come out swinging yet. Hans path: /Politics | permanent link to this entry  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
