The Omnifarium - Politics/When.html

New Liberals Win Seats, But When Is Next Election?

Category: Politics
Tue, 18 Mar 2008, 11:12

Three of four by-elections yesterday were won by Liberals. The conservatives now have to face Bob Rae and Martha Hall-Findlay on the opposition front line. But this will not squelch speculation on when the next election will be called.

For the past few weeks, we've been subjected to some strange posturing going on in Ottawa. Stephen Harper seems to be doing his best to give the opposition every chance possible to bring the government down in confidence votes. But the Liberals aren't biting. What's going on? Officially, the Liberals are saying they're waiting for the right time. I think they're right. They know exactly what the right time is. And so do the Conservatives. Here's what I think is going on in the back rooms of Ottawa:

The Conservatives want an early election. This might seem strange since the Tories are only slightly ahead of the Liberals in opinion polls. This means that the likely outcome of an election is yet another minority government. But that would give them another 12-18 months in power. Possibly longer if the Liberals decide on another leadership convention.

The Liberals want a Fall election. The reason is simple: A Fall election campaign would happen at the same time as the US election. There, the race for president will likely pit Barack Obama versus John McCain. Current political sentiment south of the border seems to favor a shift to the Democrats, which suggests that the campaigns for president, congress and the senate will be feistier and dirtier than ever.

In Canada, the Conservatives would have to battle a negative association with the Republicans south of the border. Normally, the Tories seem to do well with negative campaign ads. But if they do that when people also see negative GOP ads, that may well further reinforce the Conservative-Republican link in peoples minds. This would, of course, spell bad news for Steve and the Conservative Party.

Spring election or Fall election? That's the $64,000 question. We'll have to see how badly the Conservatives want to avoid a Fall election, and how badly the Liberals want to avoid a Spring election. And we'll have to see how much tolerance Canadians have for the current gamesmanship.

My guess is that Steve will find some excuse to dissolve parliament early and call a Spring election.

Omnifariously Yours, Hans.

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